Grizzly bears, in particular interior populations without access to anadromous salmon, occur at low densities (McLellan 1994, RIC 1998) and often require adult female annual survival rates >0.90 to persist (Eberhardt 1990). Low population densities and high adult survival rates of persistent populations, coupled with high research costs, often result in small samples of radio-monitored grizzly bears and relatively short field project durations. Combined, these factors make it difficult to collect sufficient unbiased mortality data on marked individuals for comparisons at ecologically meaningful spatial and temporal scales. Previous work has identified sources and causes of mortality of grizzlies in 13 study areas of the Continent’s central mountains (McLellan et al. 1999), however, predictive models relating human activities and landscape conditions to grizzly bear mortality (Nielsen et al. 2004) are rare. This project directly addresses a priority theme (Decision Tools) in the Sustainability Program identified in the FIA Forest Science Program Strategic Plan by developing methodologies to simultaneously assess objectives for timber management with those for grizzly bears, a species that is a significant and sensitive non-timber resource. The project’s broad goal is to provide generalized analytic and decision-making models to assess spatial-temporal habitat supply (Jones et al. 2002) and mortality risk to grizzly bears from scenarios involving forest management plans. These tools will appeal to planners and managers that need to assess tradeoffs between objectives for grizzly bear management and timber production at tactical and operational levels. They will also be of interest to local and international organizations concerned with grizzly bear conservation. Because land-use planning is inherently a multi-scale, spatial-temporal process our aim is to also create robust models that will provide insights at strategic scales of planning, and over long time periods.
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